Four trends that impact families around the globe:

• Changes in family structures
• Demographic ageing
• Rise of migration
• HIV/AIDS pandemic

Changes in family structures

• Shift from extended to nuclear families as well as rise of one-person households and of cohabitation became evident during the last 50 years
• Falling fertility rates, migration, increases in divorce rates and increase in the number of older persons are responsible for smaller-size households
• Household size has fallen to an average of 3.7 persons in East Asia, 4.9 in Southeast Asia, to 4.1 in the Caribbean, 5.7 in North Africa and to 2.8 in developed regions
• Age at first marriage has risen to between the mid to late twenties in all regions of the world, often due to better educational and employment opportunities for women
• Women have fewer children later in life
• Current fertility rates are 1.57 children per woman in developed regions, 3.1 in less developed countries and 5.47 in least developed countries

Demographic ageing

• Lower fertility rates and higher life expectancy contribute to a larger share of older persons within the overall population
• Globally, the number of older persons (60 years and over) will more than triple from 606 million to 2 billion by 2050
• In developed regions, 20% of population is older than 60 - by 2050 it will have reached 33%. In developing regions the share will increase from 8% to 20%
• Support ratios (number of working people in relation to retired persons) have been declining
• Ageing impacts on inter-generational solidarity, housing, social security systems, care giving and health costs

Rise of migration

• 175 million people (3% of world population) reside outside their country of birth; 20 million refugees in 2001
• Violence, discrimination, natural disasters and the hope for better economic opportunities have been the main factors for migration
• Migration can cause major stress on family life due to cultural, ethnic, racial and religious differences and lack of integration
• Seasonal and internal migration of men contributes to higher number of female-headed households around the world
• Trafficking and sexual exploitation of women and children have increased and have become a major part of organized crime

HIV/AIDS pandemic

• 42 million people live with HIV/AIDS
• HIV/AIDS affects the most productive members of society who often just started their own families
• Care for infected relatives, coping with the loss of numerous family members and the increase of the number of orphans cause major stress on families and societies
• Family structure has changed to increasing adolescent and grandparent headed households in some regions of Africa

Effects of the four trends

Policy considerations

• Any social policy should have the above-mentioned trends and the needs of families in mind
• Best national practices should be studied when designing a new approach to family policies
• Families should be at the center of any future social policy development

Source: www.un.org/esa/socdev/family/Publications/mtrendsbg.htm